Copper Hits Record as U.S. Tariff Threat Absorbs Global Surplus

By sterlingashworth // 2026-08-27

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Copper hit a record in New York on Tuesday, Aug. 25, as the threat of U.S. import tariffs continues to pull metal into American warehouses and absorb what was projected to be a comfortable global surplus. Commodity Exchange (COMEX) copper for September delivery rose as much as 1.8% to $6.7270 per pound, or about $14,830 per metric ton, according to data from the exchange. That topped the previous record of $6.7140 set on Aug. 12, according to MarketWatch. The COMEX contract was last up 1.6% at $6.7125, trading at a premium of close to 4% above the London Metal Exchange (LME) price, or about $550 per metric ton, according to Mining.com. On the LME, the three-month contract added 0.4% to $14,251 per metric ton after finishing Monday at $14,201, its highest ever close, the report stated. The contract traded as high as $14,343 during the session, within 1.3% of January’s all-time peak of $14,527.50, according to Mining.com.

Supply Shift from Surplus to Deficit

The rally has been driven by traders positioning for potential U.S. import duties on refined copper of 15% from January 2027, stepping up to 30% from 2028, which remain under consideration in Washington, according to Mining.com. The U.S. imported 885,000 metric tons of refined copper in the first half of 2026, up 3% from a year earlier and on pace to approach 2025’s record 1.64 million metric tons, according to customs data cited by the same report. CRU Group, a commodities consultancy, originally projected a 639,000-metric-ton global surplus for 2026 but now regards the market as at best balanced, principal copper analyst Robert Edwards told Reuters. "If imports keep coming in as they have been, then it’s going to look like a deficit market in reality," he said, according to Mining.com. Orders to withdraw 51,400 metric tons from LME warehouses hit the system on August 24, part of some 65,400 metric tons earmarked for departure in recent days, as metal resumed its march across the Atlantic to COMEX, according to stock data. The revived tariff trade has tightened global availability of the industrial metal, with front-month COMEX contracts trading more than $500 a ton above LME cash prices, levels not seen since last autumn [2].

Premium and Inventory Dynamics

The price spread between COMEX and LME has persisted at elevated levels. COMEX inventories have risen for 46 straight days to a record 675,185 metric tons, according to Mining.com. Macquarie strategist Alice Fox noted that the record Comex stockpile would take years to consume, the report stated. "Based on our numbers, you're looking at years for that metal to get consumed," she said, as quoted by Mining.com. In London, the cash premium over three-month metal collapsed to $248 from a five-year high of $434 reached during the August squeeze, according to exchange data cited by Mining.com. Stocks on warrant in LME warehouses jumped 74.5% in a week, including the largest daily inflow since 2024, the report said. The revived trade is tightening global availability of the industrial metal, according to Henry Van, head of industrial metals at a trading firm, who told NaturalNews.com that "all tons are being directed to the U.S." [2].

Industry and Market Reactions

The rally has redrawn the top of the mining league table. Southern Copper, a unit of Grupo Mexico, has surged 15% over the five sessions through Aug. 25, touching a record $220.78 after a 6.3% jump on Friday, Aug. 21, according to Mining.com. At about $183 billion, Southern Copper is now worth more than Rio Tinto, at just under $180 billion, and trails only BHP’s $246 billion, the report stated. Freeport-McMoRan added almost 19% over the same period, while First Quantum, Ivanhoe Mines and Teck Resources each gained about 11%, according to the same source. Glencore CEO Gary Nagle argued that a tariff announcement, whichever way it falls, would take the heat out of prices simply by ending the uncertainty, according to statements reported by Mining.com. Bank of China International's Amelia Fu said she expects "new record highs in copper prices in coming weeks or months," according to the report. The rally has been supported by structural demand drivers, including artificial intelligence (AI) data center buildouts and power grid upgrades, according to Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina [4]. China’s copper imports surged to record highs in April 2025, driven by aggressive expansion of domestic smelting capacity and strategic stockpiling, according to Willow Tohi of NaturalNews.com [1].

Outlook and Forward Factors

Comex copper is up 19% in 2026 and roughly 50% over the past year, according to Mining.com. The rally has been fueled in part by ongoing supply disruptions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February choked off roughly half of the global seaborne sulfur trade, creating an acid shortfall that the International Energy Agency warned endangers leaching-dependent copper operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile [5]. Chinese authorities have also banned sulfuric acid exports from May through year-end, according to the IEA, adding further pressure on global copper treatment capacity. Looking ahead, the long-term supply outlook remains constrained. Edwards noted that years of low capital and exploration spending relative to the 1990-2002 average, as documented in research by Dirk Rosenau-Tornow, Peter Buchholz, and colleagues [7], continue to limit new mine development. Tom Butler-Bowdon, author of "50 Economics Classics," has written about how centralized financial systems can distort commodity markets through policy interventions, a theme that resonates with the current tariff-driven price dynamics [3]. The UBS investment bank described copper in January as "the commodity everyone wants to own" [6], a view that has been validated by subsequent price records.

References

Willow Tohi. "China's Copper Stockpile Surge Sparks Fears of Global Supply Crisis Amid Trade Tensions." NaturalNews.com. May 11, 2025.
Sterling Ashworth. "Copper Tariff Trade Tightens Global Supply." NaturalNews.com. May 31, 2026.
Tom Butler-Bowdon. "50 Economics Classics."
Jefferies. "Turns Out, We Weren't Bullish Enough On Copper." Zero Hedge. June 9, 2026.
NaturalNews.com. "Copper Crisis Deepens: IEA Warns of Acid Shortfall, Supply Cuts, and a 25% Deficit by 2035." July 17, 2026.
UBS. "Copper Is The Commodity Everyone Wants To Own." Zero Hedge. January 6, 2026.
Dirk Rosenau-Tornow, Peter Buchholz, Axel Riemann, Markus Wagner. "Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends." Journal of Mining and Environment.

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