Researchers: 152 Polymarket "Orca" Traders Likely Bet on Inside Military Information

By sterlingashworth // 2026-08-23

Mastodon

Parler

Gab

Copy

Nonprofit research group Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) said Thursday, Aug. 20, that it identified 152 wallets on Polymarket that likely traded on non-public U.S. military information. According to the group's analysis, first reported by Reuters, the wallets earned about $8 million combined and posted an average win rate of 97.2% across their wagers. The report by ACDC comes as policymakers scrutinize the prediction-market industry. It also followed Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke being charged with using classified information to place bets on a prediction market. The U.S. Department of State has issued a memorandum reminding employees worldwide that using undisclosed official information for financial gain is a "very serious offense" that will not be tolerated, according to a Wall Street Journal report covered by Russia Today ^[1].

Research Methodology and "Orca" Identification

ACDC said it analyzed all settled markets through May 5. It defined a long-shot bet as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively within an hour on an outcome with odds of 35% or less. Under that definition, the group identified 556 "Orca" wallets. The name comes from the killer whale's precise hunting behavior, ACDC said. Those traders often opened accounts, placed successful long-shot bets in niche markets, cashed out and disappeared, according to the group. The group's method mirrors patterns seen in traditional markets. Nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts, valued at approximately $920 million, were placed at 3:40 a.m. on May 6, and Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were nearing an agreement at 4:50 a.m., according to market commentary platform the Kobeissi Letter ^[2]. Analysts have also documented approximately $7 billion in suspiciously timed oil futures trades across four separate days in March and April, executed before major U.S.-Iran announcements, according to a separate review ^[3].

Limitations and Alternative Explanations

ACDC said Orca traits could be explained by pure luck, and not all potential insiders fit the pattern. Van Dyke, who was charged with using classified information to bet on the removal of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, built his position slowly and is not among the 152 wallets identified, the group said. Some military Orca wallets had been flagged before, but ACDC said it found dozens more previously unreported wallets. A Department of War spokesperson said the department does not comment on intelligence-related matters or third-party research findings.

Copycat Bets and Security Risks

The report said military Orca trades appeared to attract copycat bets from deep-pocketed "Whales" and automated bots. This pattern may amplify and broadcast insider signals to foreign adversaries, according to the research. An Orca bet on U.S. military action in Iran hours before June 2025 strikes was followed by copycat wagers of $200,000 and $100,000, the research found. U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites that month were followed by Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint ^[4]. According to the research, similar Orca bets before the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran prompted a flurry of first-time long-shot bets. The report said the rapid succession of wagers showed that public order books can reveal sensitive trading patterns in real time.

Polymarket and Regulatory Response

Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment. The company has said it monitors suspicious activity and has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities, including in the Maduro case. Polymarket has said its public ledger allows for greater scrutiny of trading behavior. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission declined to comment on the findings. The agency has said it will strictly police misconduct and has brought charges in at least three cases. Polymarket has drawn attention for its high-profile political markets; in July 2024, the platform reported that odds of then-Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance being picked as Donald Trump’s running mate had risen by 287% ^[5].

Recommendations and Conclusions

ACDC recommends requiring all traders to prove identity, withholding payouts on suspicious trades pending investigation, and banning markets where non-public information may be most actionable and profitable, the group said. ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi said "it would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren’t monitoring these markets." The group said limiting who can bet or relying on law enforcement "will not be enough." The findings also raise broader questions about data collection and privacy. One book describes a future in which artificial intelligence replaces individual choice ^[6]. Another notes that cybersecurity efforts using large-scale data systems have not yet taken hold, citing breaches at Equifax, Yahoo and Under Armour ^[7].

References

NaturalNews.com. "US State Department warns diplomats against using insider information for Iran related wagers". NaturalNews.com. May 09, 2026.
Garrison Vance. "Oil Trader Nets Estimated 125 Million on Suspiciously Timed Bet Ahead of US Iran Deal Report". NaturalNews.com. May 10, 2026.
NaturalNews.com. "$7 billion in suspiciously timed oil trades sparks insider trading fears". NaturalNews.com. May 11, 2026.
Belle Carter. "Tensions escalate as Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz". NaturalNews.com. June 24, 2025.
NaturalNews.com. "Polymarket Odds of Ohio Sen JD Vance being picked as Trump running mate have increased by 287". NaturalNews.com. July 12, 2024.
"The Indoctrinated Brain How to Successfully Fend Off the Global Attack on Your Mental Freedom Michael Nehls MD".
Eric Topol. "Deep Medicine".

Explainer Infographic